This answer is
not all that bad but there is a somewhat better answer. You want to maximize the
number of sp2 carbon-sp3 carbon bonds which are stronger
than sp3 carbon-sp3 carbon bonds. The alkene will also be
stabilized by hyperconjugation resonance and you should also try to maximize
this interaction. You were correct in that, if the double bond formed in this
direction, the trans isomer would be formed.